1.5°C is a very interesting figure!

  

It dominates the climate conversation. It dominates not only at this moment but is also all set to do so for the whole of this century. 

But what exactly is 1.5°C? And why is it so important??

The international treaty on climate change- ‘The Paris Agreement’ aims at limiting the rise of global temperature to 1.5°C, with respect to pre-industrial temperature as a benchmark.

Since 1750 (a pre-industrial era), the average surface temperature of our planet has already increased by about 1.17°C . At the current rate of global temperature rise, we are headed to a global average surface temperature rise of 4°C by the end of this century. 

Just a 4°C rise in global temperature might sound inconsequential. Well, consider this! 

The global surface temperature was only about 5°C colder than today, during the coldest period of our last ice age about 20,000 years ago- when massive ice sheets stretched over North America and Eurasia.

So, if a negative 5°C (than the present global temperature) could mean an 'ice age', what would a rise by 4°C be like? 

THE PROBLEM 

The human society entered an entirely new phase with the onset of the industrial revolution in the 18th century. It brought with it economic growth, scientific and technological advancements, urbanization, improved transportation and communication, job opportunities, and an overall improved standard of living.

And very organically, with the economics of the time in its favour, fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) soon became the primary choice of energy that powered us into such advancements.

In the following years, we mastered the use of fossil fuels to produce electricity, power all our means of transportation (cars, trains, ships, planes), and manufacturing (machines, technologies). With it, human health improved and so did the population – demanding more electricity, transportation, and manufacturing. 

We have maintained this dramatic path of growth to date, even after over two centuries; propelling society into new phases, all the while at the back of fossil fuel as the primary choice of energy. 

This growth though has not come free. 

Burning fossil fuels to produce energy has also resulted in the release of large quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Fossil fuels are highly concentrated carbon fuels, which when burned release this trapped carbon into the atmosphere.

In 1950, the world emitted 6 billion tonnes of CO2. By 1990 this had almost quadrupled, reaching more than 22 billion tonnes. Emissions have continued to grow rapidly; we now emit over 34 billion tonnes each year.

Over the two centuries now, almost all the carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gas) released has accumulated in the earth’s atmosphere–forming a blanket (read as enhanced natural greenhouse gas effect) that now traps more of the sun's energy reaching us within our atmosphere. This trapped energy has led to the rise of the average global surface temperature of our planet, as you and I experience it today.

Same reason why, the climate change we are experiencing now is said to be “human-induced”. 

Our planet’s climate system has undergone 8 cycles of ice ages and warmer periods in the last 800,000 years – it has never changed the way it is changing now. What makes it different this time, is the “human hand” and the speed of change. 

Every decade since the 1960s has been warmer than the decade before that – so much so that the last decade 2011-2020 has been the warmest. 2020 is the hottest year on record, effectively tying with 2016, which held the previous record, for the same.  

The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 was over 3 million years ago .

Hence, with a 4°C rise, we will be staring at a complete destabilization of our known climate system – bringing with it unseen consequences to human society, and the planet at large – as has been pointed out in several scientific reports.

Every °C change at global average levels, means a different world, altogether.  

While the potential rise in temperature to unprecedented levels has been a major concern; what has turned this round of climate change into a global threat is the speed of change and the unchecked human interference.

The climate has been changing so fast that it has left very little time for adaptation - both from a biological evolutionary standpoint (including that of humans); and our everyday world order. 

The world warmed up by 5°C since the last ice age in 20,000 years. Now it is making the same transition in little over 100 years! 

Not only has our flora and fauna unable to keep up pace with our changing climate (no room for evolution); but so is our state of agricultural practices, human settlements, and infrastructure – which has evolved to current states over several centuries.

And to make matters even worse, we are releasing more greenhouse gases into our atmosphere now, than ever before.

Clearly, it is the human intervention with excessive dependency on fossil fuels that has destabilized an otherwise very stable in-balance earth system. But there is one more element at play- the reducing global green cover. Plants have traditionally played a very important role in balancing our carbon concentration by sucking it back from the atmosphere during photosynthesis to prepare their own food.

With decreasing forest cover complementing our human-growth journey, the amount of carbon that is annually sucked back out from the atmosphere is also dwindling.

The solution to our climate problem is ideally simple.

To solve climate change today is to remove the mega-accumulation of carbon in our atmosphere. To do this, we will have to (i) stop emitting any further carbon into our atmosphere, and (ii) suck back out the carbon that we have let out into the atmosphere over the last two centuries. 

However, practicing this solution has proved to be a truly uphill struggle for human society as a whole, especially with the intimate wiring of our society with fossil fuels.

THE GLOBAL CONSENT FOR ACTION

 1.5°C is also where 'climate change’ meets 'world politics and order’.  

There is something interesting that has played out in the last three decades – that has provided some sense of hope and progress. In an effort to curb this rapidly increasing average global surface temperature and its impacts on our planet; national governments from across countries, have been coming together year-on-year under the umbrella of UN to negotiate and agree on a set of common Climate Goals and Climate Action Pathways, that fits all. 

This has proved difficult, to be honest! Achieving common consensus, through diplomacy across all the countries in the world – each with a different political structure and priority – has proved challenging even for something as massive as Climate Change that affects all of us.

However, this changed in 2015-2016, when nearly every nation on our planet (197 countries), for the first time, aligned on common climate goals and pledged.

Everyone agreed to act in a manner within national boundaries, that each would limit the average global surface temperature rise to 2°C with respect to pre-industrial times; and further attempt to contain the rise in temperature within 1.5°C, by the end of the century.  

This forms the origin of 1.5°C and this monumental global agreement came to be known as the 'Paris Agreement'. This agreement today forms the basis of the global political effort in this space.

THE PLEDGE FOR ACTION

1.5°C has anchored the climate conversation by giving the political order a clear basis (a direction) to form plans/policies that are based on a scientific agreement on the upper cap to global warming. 

It made it possible to have clear roadmaps.

Article 2.1 & Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement recognized that we could cap global warming to 1.5°C by ensuring: (i) that amount of greenhouse gases emitted and sucked-back out of the atmosphere become equal by mid-century (2050); and (ii) push further in the 2nd half of this century to suck-back out more carbon from the atmosphere than we pump in each year.

In essence, the Paris Agreement set the ball rolling on what we now call the ‘Net-Zero’ roadmap, without using the term.

As part of Climate Action Pledges, national governments are now assessing national carbon footprints, proactively taking steps to reduce them, and are further encouraging/writing policies for businesses/ industries to do the same. 

A total of 128 countries (65% of all countries that were part of the Paris Agreement) have committed to Net-Zero targets, as on June 202 . This list appears to be growing with every year. The United Kingdom was the first country to declare a net zero emissions target, in June 2019. It is also the first country to legally bind the government to the target. It also includes the top 3 greenhouse gas emitting countries - China, the USA, and India - which account for nearly 47% of global annual emissions .

The Govt of India has pledged to a Net Zero Target by 2070. The pledge was made in 2021 at UNFCCC’s COP26 .

And it is these commitments to Climate Action that has brought greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint to the center of the global attention! 

CONCLUSION

As a global citizen, the climate action story for each of us now and henceforth is about ensuring that the pledges made by national governments are scrutinized, delivered on, and improved upon. It is to ensure the roadmaps chosen by the different countries protect the weakest sections of our society which are (and will) feeling the impact of this changing climate.

The climate story today is about avoiding misleading information campaigns and distractions.

The climate story today needs vigilant citizenry and stern critics.